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10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (first nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, or fatal/nonfatal stroke) using the 2013 ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations, the basis of the 2018 ACC/AHA cholesterol guideline statin decisions.
Risk = 1 − S₀^exp(ΣβᵢXᵢ − mean), where Xᵢ are ln-transformed continuous predictors (age, total cholesterol, HDL, treated or untreated SBP) plus smoking and diabetes, with sex- and race-specific coefficients (4 equations).
0–100% 10-year risk
ASCVD risk categories (2018 ACC/AHA): <5% low, 5–7.4% borderline, 7.5–19.9% intermediate, ≥20% high. In adults 40–75 years without clinical ASCVD, risk estimates guide statin therapy. The equations are validated for ages 40–79, total cholesterol 130–320 mg/dL, HDL 20–100 mg/dL, and SBP 90–200 mmHg. White/other equations are applied to all non-Black races.
Specialty
CardiologyCategory
CardiologyDifficulty
Basic
Estimated Time
30 seconds
Version
1.0
Last Updated
2026-08-15
Formula
Keywords
Normal Range
0–100% 10-year risk
Estimates 10-year risk of first atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event (nonfatal MI, coronary heart disease death, or fatal/nonfatal stroke) using the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations.
<5%: low; 5–7.4%: borderline; 7.5–19.9%: intermediate; ≥20%: high risk. In adults 40–75 years, borderline/intermediate risk prompts a clinician–patient risk discussion, often supported by risk-enhancing factors or coronary artery calcium scoring.
The Pooled Cohort Equations are the foundation of modern primary prevention statin guidelines, quantifying ASCVD risk to target preventive therapy where it provides the greatest benefit.
A 55-year-old white man, nonsmoker, without diabetes or hypertension treatment, has total cholesterol 213 mg/dL, HDL 50 mg/dL, and systolic blood pressure 120 mmHg.
Inputs:
10-year ASCVD risk ≈ 5.4% — BORDERLINE risk. A risk discussion is warranted; risk-enhancing factors may influence statin initiation.
Disclaimer: This calculator is intended for educational and clinical decision support purposes only. ASCVD risk estimates are population-based and must be interpreted in the context of the individual patient.